{"id":14505,"date":"2025-10-06T07:56:52","date_gmt":"2025-10-06T06:56:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dev.greenbenefit.com\/management-commentary-october-6-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-11-21T10:28:52","modified_gmt":"2025-11-21T09:28:52","slug":"management-commentary-october-6-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/greenbenefit.com\/en\/management-commentary-october-6-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Management Commentary &#8211; October 6, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Development since last month<\/h2>\n\n<p>In September 2025, the fund price recorded a gain of 13.50%, achieving positive development for the fifth consecutive month. Meanwhile, the fund ranks first in performance in the Morningstar evaluation among 694 sustainable funds across all short-term comparison periods (1, 3, and 6 months). This indicates that we are well on our way to building on past successes. Overall, we see it as a very encouraging sign that the lows of April 2025 may now be sustainably overcome. For full details on performance, please refer to our <a href=\"https:\/\/documents.anevis-solutions.com\/greenben\/green_benefit_Global_Impact_Fund_P.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">factsheet<\/a>.    <\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Politische Entwicklungen<\/h3>\n\n<p>In September, the US Federal Reserve lowered the key interest rate by 0.25%, which reinforced expectations for two more rate cuts in the current year 2025 and particularly boosted small caps. As smaller and mid-cap companies are more dependent on external capital, they react more sensitively to such monetary policy easing. Accordingly, small caps gained significantly in the third quarter, and indices like the Russell 2000 reached new annual highs in September. Many investors reallocated capital from overvalued large-cap tech stocks to attractively valued smaller companies. This positive market environment also supported our portfolio \u2013 however, the decisive performance impetus in September resulted from strong company announcements across the fund&#8217;s sectors.    <\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fund Performance<\/h3>\n\n<p><strong>September&#8217;s performance reveals a clear picture<\/strong><br\/>In September, seventeen of our portfolio holdings recorded gains, while eleven holdings recorded losses. <\/p>\n\n<p><strong>Positive performance contributions<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p>The two largest positive contributions came from QuantumScape and Plug Power. Daqo New Energy, Canadian Solar, Ballard Power, and Ceres Power also made significant positive contributions to gains. Further wins came from Nano One, Aumann, PowerCell Sweden, First Solar, ITM Power, Fuelcell Energy, and JinkoSolar.  <\/p>\n\n<p><strong>Negative performance contributions<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p>Individual losses in September came from Voltabox, Enapter, and SMA Solar.<\/p>\n\n<p>At the end of August, the equity ratio of our portfolio was 93%.<\/p>\n\n<p><strong>Marginal sell-offs and a selective purchase<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p>Targeted sales were made at higher price levels for Plug Power, QuantumScape, and JinkoSolar. At the same time, we further expanded our position in Nel ASA. <\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Company Examples<\/h2>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Nel ASA<\/h3>\n\n<p><strong>Nel ASA with Growing Order Backlog and the PEM Division as a Stable Anchor<br\/><\/strong>Nel&#8217;s traditionally strong alkaline electrolysis recently recorded a significant decline in sales, while the PEM division proved to be a stable growth driver and impressed with a growing order backlog. This development illustrates the structural shift in the market towards more flexible and modular solutions \u2013 a trend we are also observing in other companies in the hydrogen sector. Nel&#8217;s PEM (Proton Exchange Membrane) division is increasingly becoming the core of the company&#8217;s technological advancement. In contrast to classic alkaline electrolysis, PEM technology is characterized by its high dynamism and flexibility \u2013 it can quickly compensate for load changes, making it ideally suited for direct coupling with renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power.   <\/p>\n\n<p>Furthermore, PEM electrolysis enables a more compact design, making it particularly attractive for industrial applications and decentralized projects. Nel has made significant progress in scaling and increasing the efficiency of this technology in recent years. This technology greatly benefits from the globally growing interest in hydrogen solutions that are grid-friendly and flexibly deployable, and with a growing order backlog, it increasingly contributes to the group&#8217;s revenue and margin improvement.  <\/p>\n\n<p>Thus, the PEM division becomes a decisive factor for Nel&#8217;s future viability \u2013 both technologically and economically. The strategic partnership with Samsung E&amp;A simultaneously provides Nel with global reach and strengthens its technological credibility. In parallel, the company is working on a new generation of compact and cost-efficient electrolyzers. With liquid assets of over 1.9 billion NOK, Nel has sufficient financial leeway to successfully navigate this transformation phase. We expanded our position in Nel ASA in September, and Nel is now weighted at 3.5% in the portfolio.    <\/p>\n\n<p><strong>Significant Influence of Analysts and Short Sellers on Companies &#8211; The Example of Plug Power<br\/><\/strong>Even though analyst opinions, which often differ massively from each other, are not of great importance to us, they are obviously an important criterion for many market participants when deciding whether to exit or invest in a company. For many investors, it is simply easier to get impulses from analysts&#8217; 12-month price targets and then act. This regularly leads to analysts having a significant short-term impact on prices due to their extreme changes in price targets, as investors shy away from the considerable effort we, for example, put into forming a comprehensive independent view and a long-term assessment of a company.  <\/p>\n\n<p>A clear example of this is Plug Power: The company is sometimes valued extremely differently \u2013 while some analysts downgrade it and call it a potential bankruptcy candidate, others suddenly see it as a new star in the investment sky and raise their price targets by up to 130%. The so-called &#8220;short sellers,&#8221; including large hedge funds, also have a significant influence on the price movements of many companies. We regularly point this out and consistently see the clear effects. For instance, in early October, an analyst raised the 12-month price target for Plug Power from $3 to $7 \u2013 immediately thereafter, buyers entered the market in greater numbers, and the stock reacted with a strong price increase. It is very likely that short sellers used this movement to close their positions, which further boosted the price.    <\/p>\n\n<p>For us in portfolio management, however, what remains crucial is how Plug Power develops in the long term. We focus on the company&#8217;s fundamental prospects and therefore made a contrarian purchase in April when the stock was trading at approximately $1 USD. Decisive for us are the real progress and strategic company announcements that indicate the direction Plug Power is heading in the coming years. We always evaluate such stocks with an eye on where they could be in five years \u2013 not how they might be valued in five months. The company announcements reported here in this management commentary are real milestones, and these are good reasons for rising prices in September and early October 2025.    <\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Plug Power<\/h3>\n\n<p><strong>Plug Power with Significant Milestones \u2013 Electrolyzer Business Triples<br\/><\/strong>The hydrogen industry remains a dynamic but challenging terrain. Plug Power is currently in the spotlight, as the company must master the difficult balancing act between strong growth and urgently needed profitability. The latest operating results give cause for cautious optimism: The production facility in Georgia reported a record output of 324 tons of green hydrogen in August with an impressive utilization rate of 99.7%. These figures demonstrate that the technology works on an industrial scale and that the reliability of the facilities is noticeably increasing.   <\/p>\n\n<p>Growth is currently driven primarily by the electrolyzer business, whose revenue has more than tripled compared to the previous year. At the same time, Plug Power is strengthening its market position through strategic partnerships \u2013 for example, with industrial gas companies or through large-scale projects such as the 2-gigawatt plant in Uzbekistan. These international expansions, combined with billions in government loan guarantees, create new, long-term revenue streams. This development is supported by the internal efficiency program &#8220;Project Quantum Leap,&#8221; which aims at cost reductions and leaner structures and is already showing initial progress.   <\/p>\n\n<p><strong>Plug Power&#8217;s Brazil Deal Opens Multi-Billion Market<br\/><\/strong>The latest Brazil partnership shows that Plug Power&#8217;s management thinks big and acts strategically smart. While other hydrogen stocks are still struggling, Plug Power is cleverly positioning itself for the next growth phase. The partnership with GH2 Global from Brazil is strategically very clever. This gives Plug Power access to the huge Brazilian market. South America&#8217;s largest economy offers ideal conditions for hydrogen technology. Surplus renewable energy makes green hydrogen particularly inexpensive there. The initial target is forklifts and heavy logistics equipment in warehouses and factories. Plug Power supplies the fuel cell systems and hydrogen fueling stations. The partner GH2 handles on-site project integration. A clever concept that benefits both sides. While the competition is still hesitant, Plug Power is conquering new continents.          <\/p>\n\n<p><strong>Plug Power Delivers Technology to Europe&#8217;s Largest PEM Project<br\/><\/strong>Plug Power delivered its first 10-megawatt electrolyzer to Galp Energia, Portugal&#8217;s largest energy company. The delivery is the first of ten similar units to be installed by early 2026 at Galp&#8217;s refinery in Sines, forming Europe&#8217;s largest project for Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) hydrogen electrolyzers. Upon completion in the first half of next year, the 100 MW system will annually produce up to 15,000 tons of renewable hydrogen, thereby replacing 20% of the gray hydrogen currently used at the refinery.  <\/p>\n\n<p>This conversion is expected to reduce the facility&#8217;s greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 110,000 tons per year. The project is Plug Power&#8217;s largest installation worldwide and follows Galp&#8217;s September 2023 decision to invest 650 million Euros in green hydrogen. <\/p>\n\n<p>&#8220;Plug is developing the next generation of industrial energy solutions, and our collaboration with Galp demonstrates that hydrogen is already ready for large-scale deployment today,&#8221; said Andy Marsh, CEO of Plug Power. &#8220;This system will be a model for what is possible in the European refining sector and across the entire energy industry.&#8221; <\/p>\n\n<p>&#8220;Half of the total demand for gray hydrogen today comes from refineries and chemical plants,&#8221; commented Ronald Doesburg, Managing Director of Galp and responsible for the Industrial Business Unit. &#8220;With our first 100 MW, we will begin the decarbonization of our refinery in Sines. This is a crucial first step for Galp, but also for the industry.&#8221; <\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ceres Power<\/h3>\n\n<p><strong>Ceres Power as a Beneficiary of AI Data Center Energy Demand and a Strong Business Model<\/strong><br\/>Across the Atlantic, the trending topic of Artificial Intelligence (AI) provided fresh impetus for continued optimism. This was fueled by partnerships between the two leading AI corporations, OpenAI and Nvidia, and major Japanese companies for building AI infrastructures. According to various experts, hydrogen companies could benefit from the significantly increasing use of fuel cells in AI data centers. According to investment banks, the rapid growth of artificial intelligence is expected to increase the global electricity demand of data centers by approximately 160% by 2030, which will strain existing power grids and boost demand for reliable, on-site green power solutions.   <\/p>\n\n<p>Goldman Sachs highlighted Ceres Power&#8217;s strategic partnerships with Doosan Fuel Cell and Delta Electronics, which focus on the development and mass production using Ceres Power&#8217;s technology specifically for data centers and are considered important drivers for significant revenue and royalty growth for the company.<\/p>\n\n<p>Thanks to its partnerships, Ceres is able to play a significant role in data centers. Doosan Fuel Cell has begun mass production of Ceres-licensed metal-supported solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) systems at its plant in South Korea, with an annual capacity of 50 MW and an expected sales launch by the end of 2025. Delta Electronics is developing megawatt-scale SOFC systems for AI data centers, with production expected to start by the end of 2026. Furthermore, as part of a partnership with Shell in India, hydrogen was produced in Bangalore from a demonstration model of a megawatt-scale solid oxide electrolyzer cell (SOEC) with a module efficiency of 37 kWh\/kg H2. Ceres&#8217; business model focuses more on licensing and providing technologies than on direct manufacturing. Licensing and royalty fees from partners such as Doosan, Delta, and Denso could lead to an increase in gross margin to 80% starting in 2026.     <\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">QuantumScape<\/h3>\n\n<p><strong>QuantumScape Strengthens Market Position Through Strategic Partnership with Corning<br\/><\/strong>QuantumScape (QS), the solid-state lithium battery specialist, announced a strategic partnership with Corning Inc. The two companies have agreed to jointly develop the manufacturing of ceramic separators for QS&#8217;s solid-state batteries. This collaboration with Corning is a crucial step for QuantumScape in transitioning from research and development to scalable manufacturing. Corning had become known as a materials specialist, particularly for its Gorilla Glass for smartphone displays. The partners aim to establish mass production for ceramic separators, which QuantumScape requires for its solid-state batteries. Corning&#8217;s 170-year tradition in materials science and its proven capabilities in ceramic mass production offer QS a strong ally in overcoming one of the most complex technical hurdles in solid-state battery development.      <\/p>\n\n<p>For its solid-state batteries, QuantumScape relies on a specially developed ceramic separator that fulfills several key functions in a battery cell: It acts as a solid electrolyte with sufficient ionic conductivity, and simultaneously as a mechanical barrier against lithium dendrites, which could otherwise quickly lead to short circuits in lithium-metal anodes. Unlike polymeric separators, the ceramic does not shrink or melt at high temperatures, which significantly increases safety, and it remains chemically stable against highly reactive electrode materials. This enables QuantumScape to use pure lithium-metal anodes, which noticeably increase energy density without sacrificing lifespan or safety.  <\/p>\n\n<p>The announced collaboration with Corning is also in line with QuantumScape&#8217;s capital-light strategy to outsource manufacturing rather than building costly in-house infrastructure. This reduces execution risk and accelerates commercialization. <\/p>\n\n<p>A key growth driver for QuantumScape is its close collaboration with PowerCo, the battery subsidiary of the Volkswagen Group. This partnership has been significantly deepened: Under an expanded strategic licensing agreement, PowerCo will make up to $131 million USD in additional payments over the next two years \u2013 contingent on achieving certain development milestones. The first milestone has already been successfully completed, so QuantumScape can expect further payments in the current year, in addition to the already agreed $130 million USD from the existing licensing agreement.  <\/p>\n\n<p>The expanded cooperation enables PowerCo to start production of the QSE-5 solid-state battery cells earlier and simultaneously accelerate the establishment of QuantumScape&#8217;s pilot line.<\/p>\n\n<p>With Volkswagen, the company has a strong global partner that will significantly support both the industrial scaling and market launch of its innovative solid-state technology.<\/p>\n\n<p><strong>QuantumScape Demonstrates Functional Solid-State Battery Technology<br\/><\/strong>In September 2025, QuantumScape demonstrated that its solid-state battery technology is ready for market. At IAA Mobility in Munich, a Ducati motorcycle powered by QuantumScape&#8217;s QSE-5 cells \u2013 manufactured using the Cobra process \u2013 was presented for the first time. This live demonstration is considered a technological breakthrough, as it brings solid-state batteries from the lab into real-world application for the first time.  <\/p>\n\n<p>The new lithium-metal cells achieve an energy density of 844 Wh\/L and enable fast charging times of approximately 12 minutes from 10% to 80%. The technology promises higher range, improved safety, and a significantly longer lifespan. PowerCo CEO Frank Blome emphasized that solid-state batteries will redefine the performance limits for electric vehicles.  <\/p>\n\n<p>For QuantumScape, this development is a decisive step towards commercialization. After years of development work, the potential to make the company a central player in the future battery generation is now becoming apparent. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Development since last month In September 2025, the fund price recorded a gain of 13.50%, achieving positive development for the fifth consecutive month. Meanwhile, the fund ranks first in performance in the Morningstar evaluation among 694 sustainable funds across all short-term comparison periods (1, 3, and 6 months). This indicates that we are well on [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":16739,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[88],"tags":[89],"class_list":["post-14505","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-management-commentary-advisors","tag-2025-q4-en"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/greenbenefit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14505","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/greenbenefit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/greenbenefit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/greenbenefit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/greenbenefit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14505"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/greenbenefit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14505\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/greenbenefit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16739"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/greenbenefit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14505"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/greenbenefit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14505"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/greenbenefit.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14505"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}