General Development

In February 2025, the fund price recorded a decline of 5.18%, after initially rising by around 5% by mid-month. A development reminiscent of January: initially, generally positive corporate news led to an appreciation of the portfolio, before geopolitical factors predominated later in the month. In particular, discussions about rising inflation and the introduction of new US tariffs announced by Donald Trump as US President weighed on the markets. His erratic decisions once again led to considerable uncertainty. As of March 4, 2025, new tariffs against Canada, China, and Mexico will come into effect. For full performance details, please refer to our Factsheet.

Fund Performance

Overreaction to short-term market turbulence
Despite the short-term market turbulence in February, there were encouraging developments at the company level that underpin our confidence. The current weakness appears to be more of a market-driven overreaction than an indication of a fundamental deterioration in the economic conditions for our portfolio companies. In addition, the stabilization of prices for modules and solar cells in the solar sector is contributing significantly to the consolidation of the industry.

February’s Performance Shows a Mixed Picture
In January, ten of our portfolio holdings recorded gains, while 18 holdings suffered losses. The largest positive contributions came from Voltabox in the e-mobility sector, as well as Jinko Solar, Daqo New Energy, SMA Solar, and Canadian Solar from the solar sector. Hydrogen companies Powercell Sweden and SFC Energy also performed positively.

Ceres Power suffered the largest single loss due to a company announcement. Other hydrogen stocks such as ITM Power, Plug Power, Hexagon Purus, and Enapter also showed weak performance. At the end of February, the equity ratio of our portfolio was 94%.

Developments in the solar sector

Solar Module Prices Continue to Stabilize in February
Photovoltaic module prices continued to rise in February 2025. The turnaround now affects all technology classes, although the price increase for high-efficiency PV modules is still moderate. The announced artificial scarcity due to production cutbacks in China is now beginning to show noticeable effects. According to statements from the sales department, some large Chinese manufacturers have not produced a single new module this year so far. While some previous year’s stock can still be used, larger quantities are no longer expected.

Expert Forecasts Show Rising Module Prices Until Year-End 2025
Experts from Wood Mackenzie expect the global solar module industry to reach a sustainable balance in the coming six months. They forecast rising module prices and anticipate that prices for high-efficiency modules could climb to $0.14 to $0.15 per watt by year-end. They also highlight the ongoing consolidation in the photovoltaic industry. “Up to 300 gigawatts of wafer, cell, and module capacities could soon disappear from the market, especially among smaller manufacturers for whom there will be no rescue measures,” say the experts. This development aligns with our expectations, as shutting down production lines could help reduce the current module glut. The consequence will be that many smaller producers will leave the market, contributing to a massive reduction of overcapacities.

Company Examples

Ceres Power

Ceres Power Setback in Partnership with Bosch
Ceres Power shares suffered a sharp decline at the end of February after Bosch terminated its partnership with the company and announced its intention to sell its 17.44% stake. Bosch’s reason was a comprehensively revised strategic alignment in the hydrogen sector. Following this news, analysts significantly lowered their price targets. For example, Berenberg reduced its forecast from 650.0 pence to 340.0 pence – a value that, despite the drastic correction, still signals significant upside potential compared to the 70.0 pence share price at the end of February, as the stock nearly halved after the announcement. Ceres Power itself maintains its forecasts for 2025 unchanged. We consider Bosch’s decision to have only limited influence on Ceres Power’s long-term financial forecasts, as the company has deliberately built strategic partnerships with other global production partners over the past 12 to 18 months. These collaborations support the scaling of the technology and secure future development. Especially Ceres Power’s ability to generate substantial, high-margin licensing revenues long-term with its technology remains a decisive factor for us. For this reason, we continue to hold the position.

Nel ASA

Nel ASA Reaches Milestone in EU Grants and Revenue Stabilization
Nel ASA has signed a grant agreement for 135 million euros with the EU Innovation Fund to advance the industrialization of its next-generation electrolyzer technology. This technology is currently in the prototype stage, with the first expansion planning for an annual capacity of 1–2 GW. For this, the existing site in Herøya, Norway, will be used. According to reports, the EU funding will be combined with the company’s own investments to achieve a capacity of up to 4 GW for pressurized electrolyzer plants.

Previously, Nel presented its current business figures and showed positive development despite ongoing losses. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the company exceeded analyst expectations and recorded a significant improvement compared to the previous year. Particularly, the Alkaline division contributed to stabilization with a profit of NOK 19 million, while the PEM division recorded a negative result of NOK 22 million, a significant improvement compared to the previous year’s NOK -39 million. For the entire fiscal year 2024, Nel achieved revenues of NOK 1.49 billion, an increase compared to NOK 1.43 billion in the previous year.

CEO Håkon Volldal emphasized that revenues have nearly doubled since 2022, while losses have been reduced by 60%. For 2025, the company plans a 50% reduction in investments without compromising technological development. Nel expects an increasing order intake compared to 2023 and 2024 and is confident of establishing itself as one of the leading electrolyzer manufacturers – supported by its proven platforms and the next generation of innovative technologies.