General Development

In January 2025, the fund price experienced a 12.15% decline, after initially rising by around 10% at the beginning of the month. The negative shift was primarily driven by geopolitical factors, particularly Donald Trump’s re-assumption of office as US President. His initial decrees caused significant market uncertainty, especially with the announcement of new tariffs against Canada, China, and Mexico. Reactions were clear: while some market participants anticipated short-term volatility, others viewed the new measures as a serious burden on economic development. For complete performance details, please refer to our factsheet.

Trump’s “Drill, Baby, Drill!” rhetoric, urging the domestic oil industry to boost production, was met with criticism from investors. While he suggests that the US could supply Europe with cheap oil through an aggressive expansion of oil production, the reality contradicts this: the US shale industry requires an oil price of approximately 70 USD per barrel of Brent to make new drilling economically viable. Although drilling permits could be granted in nature reserves, this does not necessarily mean an immediate increase in production. Furthermore, the idea that Saudi Arabia would flood the oil market with additional supply to lower prices also conflicts with the interests of US producers, who require a high oil price.

Fund Performance

Fundamental Company Development Remains Intact
Despite short-term market turbulence in January, there were positive developments at the company level that give us confidence. The current weakness reflects a market overreaction rather than a fundamental deterioration of the economic conditions for our portfolio companies. It is only a matter of time until actual company data prevails again and market sentiment stabilizes.

January’s Performance Shows a Clear Picture
In January, 3 holdings in our portfolio generated gains, while 25 holdings recorded losses. The gains came from Voltabox, Aumann, and Elektrovaya, all from the e-mobility sector. The largest losses resulted from positions in Hexagon Purus, Plug Power, Ceres Power, and Jinko Solar—three hydrogen holdings and one from the solar sector. At the end of January, the equity ratio in our portfolio was 95%. Despite the sharp setback in January, net outflows remained limited at minus 168,000 euros.

Company Examples

Jinko Solar

Jinko Solar Achieves 27th Consecutive Efficiency World Record
Jinko Solar began 2025 with a groundbreaking announcement: the company achieved a new world record of 33.84% module efficiency. This breakthrough is based on the combination of N-Type TOPCon cells with a perovskite layer. In an industry characterized by overcapacity, such technological advancements are crucial for standing out from the competition. The market reaction was swift: Jinko Solar’s share price surged in the first days of the year, up until January 6. However, the euphoria did not last – by the end of January, the stock lost around 30% of its interim high, partly due to negative analyst comments. Some analysts sharply downgraded the company after profit forecasts were lowered – a development that was not surprising given the challenging market environment. According to a recent report by Wood Mackenzie, Jinko Solar ranked first among the world’s leading solar module manufacturers in January 2025. The analysis evaluated 38 manufacturers based on nine key criteria, including production experience, technological maturity, research and development, and ESG standards. Jinko Solar’s leading role in TOPCon technology, which is considered the future standard in the industry, was particularly highlighted.

Solar Module Price Increase: Dealers Report 20 Percent Rise
After months of falling solar module prices, a trend reversal is emerging in Europe for the first time. At the end of January 2025, Bart Wansink, CEO of the European distribution platform Search4Solar, reported that ten leading photovoltaic manufacturers have increased solar module prices by more than 20%. Particularly affected are TOPCon (Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact) modules, whose prices are now around 10 cents per watt – a significant increase compared to 7 cents per watt in October 2024. A key driver of this price development is the reduction of production capacities among major polysilicon manufacturers. “Manufacturers are no longer willing to produce below production costs, which puts pressure on the market,” said Wansink. Search4Solar expects further price increases, especially after the Chinese New Year, which ends in mid-February.

Plug Power

Plug Power with Final Loan Decision of 1.7 Billion USD and Capacity Expansion
Plug Power experienced a strong start to the year, recording a share price increase of almost 50% by January 6, 2025. However, these gains were completely given back by the end of January. Plug Power secured funding of 1.7 billion USD, enabling the company to complete several hydrogen facilities in the US. These projects are crucial for the green hydrogen production strategy and were approved by the US Department of Energy before the change of administration – thus legally finalized. Under normal market conditions, such an announcement would have provided stability to the share price. However, the geopolitical environment and uncertainties following the inauguration of the new US administration led to the stock falling by almost 40% since January 6.

ITM Power

ITM Power with High Cash Position, Rising Revenues, and Strong Order Backlog
ITM Power recently reported figures for October 2024. ITM Power announced that losses decreased by 7% compared to the same period last year. At the same time, revenue increased by 74%. ITM reported a record order backlog of 135.3 million pounds to date, compared to 43.7 million pounds two years ago. The cash balance is expected to rise to 185 to 195 million pounds, while the company’s current market capitalization is only around 211 million pounds. ITM Power CEO Dennis Schulz said: “Our sales pipeline and order backlog have never been as strong as they are today, and we now have a product portfolio tailored to our customers’ needs. This is evidenced by the fact that we have won large orders – all of them profitable orders.” Schulz continued: “Operationally, we are in the best shape the company has ever been in. Tangible proof of this progress is the continuously improved success rate in quality tests, which has now reached 98% – a significant leap from under 50% just two years ago.”

Despite significant operational progress, this positive development is not reflected in the share price performance over the last three years. Since January 2022, the share price has fallen from 370 GBp to its current level of 35 GBp – a dramatic decline that stands in no relation to the improved fundamentals. As one of the top 5 positions in the fund, ITM Power could gain significantly in market value over the next three years once the current discrepancy between operational performance and market valuation is resolved.